Trend analysis in social class differences in mortality by different causes of death, 1971 - 2005 and forecasting mortality into the future

Rakesh Shah and Richard Verrell, City University London

[Project number 30055]

1. Briefly outline and discuss (i) the factors that affect mortality, (ii) the factors that cause mortality to vary over time, (iii) the various measures of mortality, (iv) the different categories of deaths according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and (v) the different categories of social classes according to the Registrar General's Social Class (RGSC) based on occupation.

2. Using various mortality ratios (age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised mortality rate), examine changes/trends in mortality from all causes of death combined by (i) gender and then by (ii)gender and different age groups between 1971 - 2005. Discuss and outline the major findings

3. Using various mortality ratios (as above), examine changes/trends in mortality from different causes of death, categorised by the ICD by (i)gender and then by (ii) gender and different age groups between 1971 - 2005. Discuss and outline the major findings

4. Using various mortality ratios (age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised mortality rate, proportional mortality ratio), examine changes/trends in mortality from all causes of death combined by different social classes, gender and age groups between 1971 - 2005. Discuss and outline the major findings

5. Using various mortality ratios (as above), examine changes/trends in mortality from different causes of death, categorised by the ICD by different social classes, gender and age groups between 1971 - 2005. Discuss and outline the major findings

6. Review and discuss the different methods for modelling and forecasting trends in mortality rates. Focus on two methodologies: the Lee-Carter approach and a regression-based approach using generalised linear models (GLMs). Using both methodologies, forecasts for mortality rates for the next 70 years will be generated and will be compared.

Methodology:

Analytics: The various methods used for statistical and analytical purposes will be drawn and extended from various actuarial subjects, literature reviews of articles, actuarial text books and relevant academic research papers. The paper will also involve application of actuarial techniques and analysis of the data to look at trends in social class differences in mortality by different causes of death, 1971-2005 and forecasting mortality into the future

Models: Using the Lee-Carter approach and a regression-based approach using generalised linear models (GLMs), forecasts for mortality rates will be generated

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