Ethnic population projections

Richard Pereira and Nicola Tromans, Office for National Statistics

[Project number 20062]

The key objective is the successful production and dissemination of ONS population projections by ethnic group at a National and ideally Sub-National level.

A feasibility study for producing population projections by ethnic group was published in June 2002. Since then, work has been ongoing into the methodology and assumptions required for the production of such projections.

LS data has previously been used in Ethnic Projections, to help assess changes over time in the levels of fertility and mortality for different ethnic groups.

Further LS data is required for researching the degree with which people change their ethnic identity over time. With LS data, it will be possible to compare subject's changes in ethnic identity between 1991 and 2001. This data will then enable the rate at which people change their ethnic identity over time to be incorporated into the ethnic projection model.

The LS should also provide a sufficient sample from which to analyse fertility over the reproductive life course for both first and subsequent generations and to inform other assumptions in the projections. This is not currently possible.