Social class mortality forecasts

David Blake, Pensions Institute, Kevin Dowd, University of Nottingham and Andrew Cairns, Heriot-Watt University

[Project number 30074]

The aim of this project is to build a stochastic forecasting model of mortality rates of males and females in different social classes and to investigate differential trends in social class mortality. The applicants have already built a stochastic forecasting model of mortality rates of males from the national population of England and Wales (A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73, 2006, 687-718) and now wish examine a social class breakdown of mortality, especially at higher ages.

We would also like to update the model annually which would require adding the 2005 data to the original data set when it becomes available in September 2007 and the 2006 data when it becomes available in September 2008 etc.